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Supply Chain Forecasting Software, by Shaun
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This books explains the emerging technology of inventory optimization and multiechelon (MEIO) supply planning. It takes a complex subject and effectively communicates what MEIO is about in plain English terms. This is the only book currently available that describes MEIO for practitioners, rather for mathematicians or academics. The book describes with text and graphics how inventory optimization allows the entire supply plan to be controlled with service levels, and how multi echelon technology answers the question of where to locate inventory in the supply network. This is the only book on inventory optimization and multi echelon planning which compares how different best of breed vendors apply MEIO technology to their products. It also explains why this technology is so important for supply planning and why companies should be actively investigating this method. The book moves smoothly between concepts to screen shots and descriptions of how the screens are configured and used. This provides the reader with some of the most intriguing areas of functionality within a variety of applications.
- Sales Rank: #2706998 in eBooks
- Published on: 2012-02-01
- Released on: 2012-02-01
- Format: Kindle eBook
Review
Editorial ReviewsShaun's new book "Supply Chain Forecasting Software" is easy to get through, with points illustrated by screen shots from real forecasting software. The book is not a product-by-product review of the offerings of software vendors (which is what I was originally expecting). Instead, he covers several fundamental topics of a supply chain forecasting process (like statistical forecasting, consensus, collaboration, error management, and lifecycle planning). He also provides numerous links to blog posts where he goes into further detail on these and related topics. - Mike Gilleland
"Supply Chain Forecasting Software" is a fast and worthwhile read for anyone involved with business forecasting. It would be particularly valuable for organizations engaged in the selection of forecasting software, or that have implemented forecasting systems and processes, yet are failing to see the expected/promised results. This book can help any forecaster understand why their efforts may be failing, and what they can do about it.- Mike Gilleland
Shaun Snapp's interesting new book offers fresh insights for forecasting practitioners in the supply chain field. Supply Chain ForecastingSoftware (SCFS), published in 2012 by SCM Focus Press, covers areas not typically seen in either the forecasting or the supply-chain literature- namely, how the major ERP forecasting tools work, and how to make them work better. While the topic of how to improve forecasting outcomes has been covered in innumerable articles, SCFS offers greater specificity about many of the enterprise-level forecasting packages that businesses use for SCM. - Jim Hoover
From the Author
Who is This Book For? This book is an effective primer for anyone who is about to perform a demand planning software selection or who is beginning a demand planning project at their company. The book is also useful for anyone who wants to better understand forecasting software or who wants to find out about some leading edge approaches and functionalities that have yet to see broad application, but which can improve forecast accuracy.Table of Contents
- Chapter 1: Introduction
- Chapter 2: Where Forecasting Fits Within the Supply Chain Planning Footprint
- Chapter 3: Statistical Forecasting Explained
- Chapter 4: Why Attributes-based Forecasting is the Future of Statistical Forecasting
- Chapter 5: The Statistical Forecasting Data Layer
- Chapter 6: Removing Demand History and Outliers
- Chapter 7: Consensus-based Forecasting Explained
- Chapter 8: Collaborative Forecasting Explained
- Chapter 9: Bias Removal
- Chapter 10: Effective Forecast Error Management
- Chapter 11: Lifecycle Planning
- Chapter 12: Forecastable Versus Unforecastable Products
- Chapter 13: Why Companies Select the Wrong Forecasting Software
- Chapter 14: Conclusion
- Appendix A:
- Appendix B: Forecast Locking
- Appendix C: The Lewandowski Algorithm.
From the Inside Flap
Areas of Focus in Supply Chain Forecasting Enterprise SoftwareHere is a sampling of what the book covers:
- Explains how consensus based forecasting software and statistical forecasting software compare to one another.
- Why most companies are using forecasting systems which have poor hierarchical capabilities.
- The concept of virtual hierarchies versus static hierarchies and why virtual hierarchies are so preferable.
- Innovation in the data layer that supports forecasting applications.
- What makes a statistical method "statistical."
- How to perform demand forecasting for lumpy items (and how it relates to supply planning), with examples of how general demand lumpiness is increasing and reducing forecast accuracy.
- How and why the IT department can and should be taken out of the role of maintaining the attribute database, and what this means for increasing the flexibility of the forecasting system.
- How to enabled causal forecasting in your company using a new technique which leverages attributes rather than the traditional technique requiring placing regression formulas into the forecasting application.
- How to easily created forecasts by customer, and how this can support service level agreements (SLAs).
- How to quickly perform top down forecasts.
- How different vendors approach lifecycle planning, and a novel approach to lifecycle forecasting which greatly reduces the effort involved.
- How to determine what component of your product database is unforecasteable, and what to do about unforecastable products.
- Why big consulting companies often cannot help you select the appropriate forecasting application for your needs.
- How Lean applies to forecasting.
- How the Lewandowski forecast algorithm relates to forecast simulation.
- Why supply chain and product database simplification is critical to improving forecast accuracy.
- Why it is important to produce a naive forecast (as a simulation) for determining how to leverage best fit functionality.
- What is forecast simulation, and how it can improve decision-making?
- Examples from Netflix, Blockbuster Video, Nike, Trader Joe's, the grocery industry, publishing and service parts.
- A Book Based in Reality, Emphasizing Actionable Knowledge
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Valuable considerations for forecasting software selection and implementation
By MVGilliland
In 2011 I came across Shaun Snapp's blog (scmfocus.com), and immediately took a liking. In particular, I was drawn to his independent and critical tone, and a willingness to challenge the "objectivity" of many commentators and advisors in the forecasting industry. He also takes a reasoned look at the common dogmas of our profession, with an eye to encouraging what can work, while exposing the marketing fluff and shoddy thinking of the really bad ideas. He is not just another cheerleader hyping the latest forecasting buzzword or fad.
Shaun's book "Supply Chain Forecasting Software" is easy to get through, with points illustrated by screen shots from real forecasting software. The book is not a product-by-product review of the offerings of software vendors (which is what I was originally expecting). Instead, he covers several fundamental topics of a supply chain forecasting process (like statistical forecasting, consensus, collaboration, error management, and lifecycle planning). He also provides numerous links to blog posts where he goes into further detail on these and related topics.
The chapter on attributes-based forecasting argues for the importance of flexible, user-defined hierarchies (as opposed to the static hierarchies that are defined and locked-in during implementation of many software packages.) An attribute is anything that is associated with a product, such as physical characteristic like color or size, or any other categorization (e.g. location, season, target audience). With flexible hierarchies, user can organize data, model, and generate forecasts in a way that is most suitable for the particular situation.
There is also a chapter devoted to forecastable versus unforecastable products, which is an important consideration for anyone trying to manage a supply chain. Rather than expecting to achieve a high level of accuracy for all products, or wasting resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy, Shaun shares ideas for identifying and dealing with the unforecastable.
"Supply Chain Forecasting Software" would be a valuable read for organizations considering the selection of new forecasting software. It would also be useful to those organizations that have implemented forecasting systems and process, yet are failing to see the expected/promised results. This book can help any forecaster understand why their efforts may be failing, and what they can do about it.
There is a more thorough review of this book by industry expert Jim Hoover (of Accenture's Federal Services Defense Practice) in the Summer 2013 issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Valuable Wisdom from a Seasoned Consultant
By BillT
Mr. Snapp has a keen understanding of the functional and technical approaches to demand forecasting that work (and do not work) in organizations. He is a first rate consultant in all ways and clearly puts the interests of his clients (and readers) ahead of any commercial objectives. This is quite rare and I found it very refreshing.
The book is about 250 pages long, but it is written in a conversational style and can be read in its entirety in one or two sittings. If you're considering purchasing or implementing a tool for demand planning, this would be a fast and very worthwhile read. And, if you have an older system, "Supply Chain Forecasting Software" will certainly broaden your horizons.
The book provides detailed information about a handful of bundled and standalone solutions. If developed further in future editions, I would recommend seeking information on other systems as well.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Invaluable Guide
By Olly2014
Written from an actual hands-on well-experienced SAP software engineer, this guide is an invaluable tool for anyone involved within the realm of SAP and also just to aid in a better understanding of the ins and outs of the Manufacturing Supply Chain concept, business model and modules.
Snapp utilizes real experiences from actual forecasting implementations to include clear, precise diagrams and charts to further illustrate his points.
This is a great guide within the SCM Focus series. I have gotten 3 other books within the series and with the risk of being redundant, I feel they are all invaluable.
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